by Charles Ying

Google will be Real Time in 2010

February 17th, 2009

A few days after Thanksgiving 2010 actually, with 4 months margin of error.

I just read Greg Linden’s notes on Google Fellow Jeff Dean‘s keynote at WSDM 2009.

Follow my wonderfully flawless math here:

  • Google took 10 years to drop their index update latency by a factor of x10000 – from several months to “minutes”.
  • Google’s current update latency is “in minutes”. We’ll assume the worst case of 30 minutes (otherwise Jeff might’ve said “under an hour”)
  • Assuming linear trends, Google reaches the next speed factor every 8.7 hours.
  • If you define “real-time web” as updating once per second, Google will achieve real-time search in 657 days, a little less than 2 years.
  • 657 days from Feb 10, 2009 (when Jeff gave his talk) is:
  • November 29, 2010.

Google does not fear the Real-Time Web.

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