Google will be Real Time in 2010February 17th, 2009
A few days after Thanksgiving 2010 actually, with 4 months margin of error.
Follow my wonderfully flawless math here:
- Google took 10 years to drop their index update latency by a factor of x10000 – from several months to “minutes”.
- Google’s current update latency is “in minutes”. We’ll assume the worst case of 30 minutes (otherwise Jeff might’ve said “under an hour”)
- Assuming linear trends, Google reaches the next speed factor every 8.7 hours.
- If you define “real-time web” as updating once per second, Google will achieve real-time search in 657 days, a little less than 2 years.
- 657 days from Feb 10, 2009 (when Jeff gave his talk) is:
- November 29, 2010.
Google does not fear the Real-Time Web.